Nigeria’s fuel market is showing fresh signs of strain as major depots and the Dangote Refinery quietly adjust Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices upward.
While the increases remain modest for now, many motorists are wondering: how long before they hit the pumps harder?
As of Thursday, April 16, 2026, depot prices for petrol have inched up marginally, according to data tracked by PetroleumPriceNG and reported by Legit.
Dangote Refinery raised its ex-gantry price from ₦1,200 to ₦1,209 per litre.
Other notable adjustments include:
Masters — ₦1,225 per litre
NIPCO Lagos — ₦1,206 per litre
Sigmund — ₦1,230 per litre Private depots such as AP and MRS have also reflected similar subtle shifts.
Experts believe these ex-depot changes will gradually translate to higher retail prices at filling stations nationwide, adding pressure on already stretched household budgets. The adjustments come against a backdrop of persistent global crude oil volatility, worsened by the ongoing US-Iran standoff in the Strait of Hormuz.
International benchmarks stayed firm on Thursday. Brent crude traded around $96.8 per barrel, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $92.41, and Murban at $100.4, per oilprice.com data. This volatility stems from geopolitical risks. The US blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil flows, continues to unsettle energy markets.
Analysts say failure to reach a quick US-Iran agreement could keep prices elevated or push them higher. Energy policy analyst Adeola Yusuf told Legit.ng that a truce is expected soon, but the current blockade has heightened concerns among global energy players.
OPEC+ members have ramped up output to offset potential shortages, yet Nigerians remain exposed due to the country’s heavy reliance on imported and refined petroleum products.
Nigeria’s headline inflation climbed to 15.38% in March 2026, up from 15.06% the previous month, the first rise in nearly a year and the highest monthly reading in two decades.
Food and transport costs, heavily influenced by fuel prices, were key drivers. With over 70% of vehicles in Nigeria running on petrol, even small depot hikes quickly ripple through the economy, affecting everything from commuting to generator use for businesses and homes.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) reveals a sharp behavioural shift. Average daily PMS consumption fell to 47.3 million litres in March, down from 56.9 million litres in February — a 16.9% decline.
This drop wasn’t accidental. In recent weeks, depot prices were adjusted seven times (five increases, two reductions), creating uncertainty.
Pump prices hovering above ₦1,200 per litre in many areas forced quick adaptations:
Transport operators cut trips
Small businesses have limited generator runtime
Households rationed fuel use
In a deregulated market, Nigerians have little choice but to adjust consumption when prices rise.
While demand eased, total petrol supply edged up modestly from 39.5 million litres per day in February to 40.1 million litres per day in March (a 1.5% increase).
However, the composition shifted noticeably. Domestic supply declined from 36.5 million litres per day to 34.2 million litres per day. In contrast, imports nearly doubled — jumping from 3.0 million litres per day to 5.9 million litres per day, a 97% surge.
Dangote Refinery still supplies the bulk of local gasoline, over 72% of national consumption according to NMDPRA, but marketers increasingly turned to imports to maintain availability and prevent widespread shortages or queues.
The reduced consumption has eased some pressure on the supply chain, allowing products to circulate more freely in certain areas despite the marginal overall supply growth.
These subtle depot price increases highlight the fragility of Nigeria’s fuel market. Global tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with domestic inflation and repeated price volatility, continue to squeeze consumers. While a US-Iran truce could bring relief, the immediate outlook suggests Nigerians will keep paying a premium for petrol.
Many are already changing habits, driving less, consolidating trips, or seeking alternatives where possible. In the longer term, greater domestic refining stability from facilities like Dangote could help buffer against external shocks, but for now, the market remains sensitive to every global ripple.
